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04/16/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Unless we see a handful of defections between now and May 1, it looks as if the $300,000 Lexington Stakes will not be a major factor in determining the Kentucky Derby lineup.
The only horse with a chance of reaching the starting gate on the first Saturday in May is Todd Pletcher's Connemara, and even if the son of Giant's Causeway hits the wire first, Pletcher isn't 100% certain he'll send the chestnut colt into the first leg of the Triple Crown.
Still, the Grade 2 event is a compelling betting race featuring 12 horses of equal talent. Even the morning line oddsmaker had difficulty determining a favorite as four colts are between 4 and 6-1.
The tepid early favorite is Uptowncharlybrown, who'll be the sentimental choice after losing his trainer, Alan Seewald, to a deadly heart attack earlier in the week. Linda White, his longtime assistant, will saddle the fifth-place finisher from the Tampa Bay Derby.
Uptowncharlybrown does receive a positive rider change going from Daniel Centeno to Garrett Gomez but the long-striding son of Limehouse is still an unknown over the Polytrack surface. It's quite possible even with the jockey switch that the colt could regress in the Lexington.
As mentioned earlier, Connemara is the lone horse in the race with a chance to be draped with the blanket of roses in two weeks. He ran third in his last start - the Lane's End Stakes at Turfway Park - the first time he failed to finish first or second in five lifetime appearances.
Connemara has had multiple problems getting out of the gate with the rest of the horses and it severely affected his chances in the Lane's End after hopping at the start. Don't expect his penchant for poor breaks to improve in the Lexington as he has now broke slowly in four of his five career efforts.
Kettle River is another colt with something to prove after a disastrous eighth- place finish in the Sham Stakes back on March 5. In that race, jockey Brice Blanc got him in all sorts of trouble right from the start breaking dead last in the 10-horse field. Remaining in that position after checking slightly around the far turn, the son of Congaree was finally free and clear through the stretch but had little in the tank inside the final furlong.
As is the case with Uptowncharlybrown, a rider change from Blanc to J.J. Castellano could move the horse forward. The unknown factor is Polytrack as Kettle River has never set foot in a race on that type of synthetic. Nevertheless, his workouts at Keeneland could indicate a liking for the surface, especially after he breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 earlier in the week. If he's ever going to get back to his winning ways, this Saturday could be the day.
One horse that shouldn't have any problems with Polytrack is Krypton. The son of Rock Hard Ten prevailed in an allowance race on opening day at Keeneland by over six lengths, and Kiaran McLaughlin sends him right back 15 days later.
He should break quickly from the rail but the key will be for jockey Alan Garcia not to get caught in an early speed duel with Exhi. If those two colts go too fast in the first half of the race, it is doubtful either one will find himself in the winner's circle.
Speaking of Exhi, he's the second Todd Pletcher-trained horse in the race besides Connemara. Don't forget, the four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer has won the Lexington the last two years with Advice and Behindatthebar.
Exhi was abused by Odysseus in a Tampa Bay allowance race in mid-February, losing by 15 lengths. However, he had a built-in excuse that day since it was his first start off a 116-day layoff.
The son of Maria's Mon bounced back to win the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park, the same day as the Lane's End. Ridden by Russell Baze, the bay colt led by a full length throughout, with splits of 47 2/5, 1:11 2/5 and 1:37 3/5 for four, six and eight furlongs, before finishing up the 1 1/16 in 1:44 2/5.
For comparison purposes, the internal fractions of the Lane's End were 48 2/5, 1:12 3/5 and 1:37 4/5, with the winner, Dean's Kitten, running a slower time at each point in the race. In addition, the horse on the lead for all three splits wound up ninth and last.
Robby Albarado will take him as far as he can go on Saturday but don't expect similar results since Krypton will be breathing down his neck for much of the race.
LONGSHOTS TO CONSIDER
I mentioned earlier that the Lexington is a very contentious race, so there will be a few decently-priced horses to keep a watchful eye on.
Call Shot comes to Keeneland off a third-place finish to Radiohead and Homeboykris in a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park on February 27. He ran his final quarter-mile that day in 24 1/5 showing that the 1 1/16-miles won't be too much of a burden.
Don't forget, the $235,000 yearling purchase was actually favored over (and defeated) American Lion last September. He then followed up that effort with a win (via disqualification) over Polytrack at Keeneland.
Call Shot has been working well over the track as evidenced by his 58 2/5 bullet on April 5 - his fastest work of 2010. There's a good chance he'll be at least 10-1, so pluck a few dollars down on the son of Tale of the Cat.
Prince Will I Am makes his first start in almost two months since an eighth- place run in the Fountain of Youth. In fact, he's now lost twice to Eskendereya by over 30 lengths. On the other hand, the Kentucky-bred already has a victory at 45-1 and a second-place finish at 42-1 so he's proven to be able to fool the public on more than one occasion. His late closing style should pay dividends at Keeneland so don't rush to throw him out of the exotics.
Distorted Dave comes into the Lexington off a huge score at Santa Anita, knocking off both Big Man Has a Sign and Indian Firewater by over four lengths. Trainer John Sadler has been hot as a pistol with Sidney's Candy and Line of David winning Grade I stakes this month so toss Distorted Dave at your own risk.
Chief Counsel is another colt with a license to improve off his last outing. The Bill Mott-trained three-year-old was the next-to-last priced horse in the Lane's End but finished a decent fourth in his first graded stakes appearance.
He comes into the Lexington off just one posted workout since that race but it was a dandy 46 4/5 breeze over the track last Saturday. It will be interesting to see if he is able to carry some of that early morning speed into the race, especially since his only start at Keeneland was a gate-to-wire victory over First Dude, who just finished third in the Blue Grass.
Unfortunately, he's stuck all the way on the outside in post 12, so even if Kent Desormeaux wants some early speed he might be forced wide if Exhi, Heavenville and Kettle River all break sharply from his inside.
Heavenville comes into the Lexington off a 6 1/4-length win in an ungraded state-bred stakes event on Louisiana Derby day at the Fair Grounds. His 1:44 2/5 final time for the 1 1/16-mile race compared very favorably to Mission Impazible's victory in the Derby so keep that in mind when you see him go off at 20-1 or higher.
Selections: 1) Kettle River; 2) Call Shot; 3) Distorted Dave. The longshot is Prince Will I Am.
MEDAGLIA d'AMOUR RETURNS
After knocking off entry-level allowance foes on March 14, Medaglia d'Amour takes a giant step up in class this Saturday in the Grade II Santa Barbara Handicap at Santa Anita.
The four-year-old filly also must contend with the grueling 1 1/4-mile distance after running a flat mile last month. However, she's bred to run all day as her dam, Izara, is a half-sister to Fraise, and her granddam, defeated John Henry in the 1983 Oak Tree Invitational.
Tuscan Evening, the expected favorite, comes into the Santa Barbara riding high a three-race stakes winning streak so Medaglia d'Amour's price should be a square one.
If she is able to come through with a victory, there's no telling how good the Ben Cecil-trained filly could be.
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
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