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07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez's quest to become the youngest player in baseball history with 600 home runs takes him to St. Petersburg where the New York Yankees open a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.
Rodriguez remained stuck at 599 on Thursday, but drove in three runs while both Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson added two RBI in the Yankees' 11-4 win over Cleveland. Robinson Cano homered and Francisco Cervelli also drove in a run for the Yankees, who took three of four in the set at Progressive Field and have won 17 of 22 overall.
The Yankees enter this series with a two-game lead on the Rays in the American League East.
"We're playing good baseball, winning baseball," said Rodriguez, who will become the seventh player to reach the milestone. "The thing to remember is that when I hit (my 600th home run), nothing is going to change. We're just trying to play good baseball."
Rodriguez, who was 3-for-17 in the series with the Indians, should still easily become the youngest player to reach the milestone. Babe Ruth hit his 600th at age 36, while Rodriguez turned 35 on Tuesday.
Ruth may have reached the milestone quicker, hitting No. 600 in his 6,921st at-bat, but Rodriguez's pace (8,671 at-bats entering play Friday) trails only that of Barry Bonds (8,212) and eclipses Willie Mays (9,514) and Henry Aaron (10,009).
However, his 30 at-bats between home runs is the longest drought between homers 599 and 600 of the six other members in the club.
Taking the ball for New York in the opener tonight will be righty Phil Hughes, who has won two of his last three starts. Hughes improved to 12-3 on Sunday against Kansas City, as he allowed three runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings.
Hughes, though, has given up 15 runs in his four July starts and has seen his earned run average balloon to 4.04.
He is 2-1 in seven games (two starts) against the Rays with a 4.20 ERA.
Tampa, meanwhile, has won six in a row after a three-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers that culminated with a 4-2 win on Thursday. Carlos Pena went 3-for-4 with a home run and drove in all of Tampa Bay's runs, while David Price picked up his AL-best 14th victory after limiting the Tigers to two runs in 6 1/3 innings.
Price allowed seven hits, walked two and struck out nine for the Rays and matched the team record for victories in a season, shared by James Shields (2008), Edwin Jackson (2008) and Rolando Arrojo (1998).
"He's having a tremendous year," Rays third baseman Evan Longoria said. "He's pitched about as good as anybody has this year in the major leagues. He's been consistent for the most part all year. He's been a guy we can lean on when we need a stop or when we need a win. That's huge."
Tampa has won 19 of its 25 games since June 30 and is a season-best 25 games over .500. At the 100-game mark, the club is eight games ahead of last season and three ahead of its 2008 pace when it captured the American League pennant.
Going for Tampa tonight will be 25-year-old righty Wade Davis, who is 8-9 with a 4.32 ERA. Davis won his third straight start on Sunday in Cleveland, holding the Indians to a pair of runs and seven hits in 6 1/3 innings.
Davis, who has given up one home run in three at-bats to A-Rod, beat the Yankees back on May 19 and is 1-2 in three starts against them with a 4.86 ERA.
These teams have split their eight matchups this season.
<< Blue Jays seek fourth straight victory in opener with Indians
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Blue Jays take aim at their fourth straight win
this evening when they open a three-game series against the Cleveland Indians
at Rogers Centre.
Toronto started its six-game homestand in impressive fashion, as i
<< Tigers bring up Frazier; designate Larish for assignment
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers have purchased the contract
of outfielder Jeff Frazier from Triple-A Toledo and opened a roster spot for
the slugger by designating infielder Jeff Larish for assignment.
Frazier was hitti
<< NBA Atlantic Division Off-Season Grades
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlantic Division had only one team finish
with a winning record last season (Celtics), and although some members have
improved since then, it looks like it will be pretty weak once again. Let's
take a look a
<< Unpredictable tournament sets up USA-Cuba in quarters
Thunder Bay, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After six exciting days and 30 hard-
fought games of round-robin competition, the 2010 International Baseball
Federation World Junior Baseball Championship is set to begin the medal round.
Anything but pre
Giants send Lincecum to the hill versus Dodgers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Lincecum goes after win No. 11 this evening when the
San Francisco Giants open a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers
at AT&T Park.
Lincecum has not received a decision in either of his last two outing
With trade rumors swirling, ChiSox start set with Oakland >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox have been an awfully tough team to
beat over the past two months, and the current American League Central leaders
have been virtually invincible at U.S. Cellular Field during that time period.
Chicago
Royals continue set with Orioles in Kansas City >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles hope a flurry of changes can help
lead to more results like the team produced on Thursday.
The revamped club will set its sights on a second straight victory over the
Kansas City Royals, who'll be out
Twins return home to face Mariners >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off a wildly successful road trip, the surging
Minnesota Twins return to Target Field this evening to play the first of three
consecutive matchups with the Seattle Mariners.
The Twins are back home after going 6-1 on
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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